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United States : Empire State Mfg Survey  
Released On 11/15/2018 8:30:00 AM For Nov, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level21.1 20.0 18.0  to 22.2 23.3 

Highlights
In contrast to the softening in this morning's Philly Fed report, the sample for Empire State is reporting increasing strength in this month's activity. November's headline index rose 2.2 points to a 23.3 level that exceeds Econoday's high estimate.

New orders fell back sharply in the Philly data but not in this report, at 20.4 for only a 2.1 point slowing from October. But unfilled orders, like the Philly report, proved soft coming in unchanged but still better than the 8.4 point contraction in October. And unlike Philly, the 6-month outlook improved, up 4.6 points to a strong 33.6.

Inventories are building, hiring increased, and shipments rose 1.7 points to a very strong 28.0. Like Philly Fed, price data are mixed with input costs very elevated at 44.5 for a 2.5 point gain though pass through to customers eased very slightly, down 1.2 points to 13.1.

This report together with the Philly Fed data point to consistent but not accelerating conditions for the nation's factory activity in November. Yet manufacturing has been a leading sector for the economy and looks to end 2018 on a clearly positive note.

Consensus Outlook
At a consensus 20.0 vs 21.1 in October, strong and steady growth is the expectation for the November Empire State index. October showed very good results as capacity stress eased including a sharp drawdown in unfilled orders and only a fractional increase in the workweek.

Definition
The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 200 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey and the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey tend to move in tandem though not each and every month. They are both considered leading indicators for the ISM manufacturing survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/162/153/154/165/156/157/168/159/1710/1511/1512/17
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


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