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United States : Empire State Mfg Survey  
Released On 10/15/2018 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level19.0 18.8 17.0  to 21.4 21.1 

Highlights
October has been an unusually healthy month for Empire State's manufacturing sample, posting a 21.1 overall index for a 2.1 point gain from September and near the top of Econoday's consensus range.

Very good news in the report comes from signs that capacity stress is easing. The sample is getting ahead of orders as shipments surged 12.0 points to 26.3 and backlogs were worked down, now at minus 8.4 for a 13.3 point decline. Inventories of raw materials were drawn down, at 0.8 for a 8.1 point decline, while delivery times improved, input costs eased, and the average workweek was flat at only 0.2 vs September's 11.5.

Given the easing in capacity stress, a big gain for new orders tops off the good news in October, up 6.0 points to 22.5 for a very sharp gain and the highest level since June last year. This report offers the best of both worlds and hints at a very fine 2018 finish for the nation's manufacturing sector.

Consensus Outlook
At a consensus 18.8 vs 19.0 in September, steady and strong growth are the expectations for the October Empire State index. The September report, though strong, did see moderate cooling in backlog orders and an easing in 6-month confidence.

Definition
The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 200 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey and the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey tend to move in tandem though not each and every month. They are both considered leading indicators for the ISM manufacturing survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/162/153/154/165/156/157/168/159/1710/1511/1512/17
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


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