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United States : Empire State Mfg Survey  
Released On 7/16/2018 8:30:00 AM For Jul, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level25.0 22.0 17.0  to 26.0 22.6 

Empire State came in very strong and right at expectations, at 22.6 in July. Strength is always good news unless it's accompanied by overheating but in today's report there's a little less stress in supply chain indications.

Unfilled orders show no change in the month which points to less production stress in future months, and delivery times, though still lengthening, are lengthening to a much less degree than prior months. The workweek is also showing less stress while input costs, which like delivery times are still elevated, are also easing a bit. Employment, at 17.2, is very strong but down nearly 2 points from May.

But the fundamental strength of this report, that is new orders, continue to pour in, at 18.2 which is down 3.1 points from May but still pointing to unusual demand for this sample's goods. Shipments, at 14.6, slowed in the month and may be getting held down by a draw in raw material inventories, where scarcity could be tied to delivery delays and other capacity issues.

This is yet another very good report for a factory sector that is proving a strong driver of the 2018 economy. Watch tomorrow for the industrial production report where major June strength is the expectation.

Consensus Outlook
Order data were very strong in the June Empire State report which points to general strength for the July edition. Econoday's consensus for July is 22.0 vs June's 25.0.

The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 200 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead.  Why Investors Care
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey and the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey tend to move in tandem though not each and every month. They are both considered leading indicators for the ISM manufacturing survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/162/153/154/165/156/157/168/159/1710/1511/1512/17
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