2018 Economic Calendar
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United States : Empire State Mfg Survey  
Released On 4/16/2018 8:30:00 AM For Apr, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level22.5 18.2 15.0  to 22.0 15.8 

Highlights
There are hints of tariff trouble in this month's Empire State report where slowing is the result, at 15.8 for the headline index vs 22.5 in March and Econoday's consensus for 18.2. But it's the 6-month outlook readings that tell the tale showing very severe and sudden declines, collapsing a whopping 25.8 points for general conditions to only 18.3 which is very weak for this reading. The outlook shows similar declines for new orders and shipments in what are very likely direct reactions to steel and aluminum tariffs put in place in March not to mention the wider threat underway of rising tariffs in general.

More immediately, demand in April is slowing which is probably a positive given the unusually strong and unsustainable rates of growth in prior months. Growth this month in both new orders, at 9.0, and backlog orders at only 3.7 are slowing, as is employment which is at 6.0.

But production in the sample is definitely still humming along, at 17.5 for shipments while the workweek which is up 11 points to 16.9. And there are still plenty of indications of capacity stress including delivery times where delays are heavy and also prices which aren't accelerating further this month though they remain very elevated, at 47.4 for input costs and 20.7 for selling prices.

Big double digits nearly everywhere are the usual results of this report which makes April -- and especially the decline in the outlook -- a signpost month for this report. Watch perhaps for similar results in Thursday's Philly Fed report.

Consensus Outlook
The Empire State index has been strong and easily beat Econoday's high estimate in March. Forecasters are calling for only limited give back with the April consensus at 18.2. Prices in this sample rose in March and further increases would add to inflation talk.

Definition
The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 175 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has a much shorter history than the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey. The two series tend to move in tandem much of the time, although not each and every month. They are both considered leading indicators for the ISM manufacturing survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/162/153/154/165/156/157/168/159/1710/1511/1512/17
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


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