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United States : Empire State Mfg Survey  
Released On 3/15/2018 8:30:00 AM For Mar, 2018
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level13.1 15.0 10.2  to 16.0 22.5 

Highlights
Empire State is back on fire, coming in at 22.5 for March vs a consensus for 15.0 and a high estimate of 16.0. Like the Philly Fed which was also released this morning, new orders and backlogs are unusually strong in this sample, at 16.8 for a 3.3 point gain and 12.7 for a respective 7.8 point gain. And like Philly Fed, employment is up, delivery times are slowing, and prices are hot. Also like Philly Fed, this sample sees their selling prices rising sharply in the months ahead.

Small sample surveys have been sending record strong signals for the past year with actual government data showing much less strength, though tomorrow's industrial production report, which is part of the actual data, is expected to move higher.

Consensus Outlook
A bit cooler than the Philly Fed, expectations are nevertheless strong for February's Empire State index where the consensus is 15.0. Increased hiring, slowing deliveries, and traction for selling prices are some of the signs of capacity stress in this report.

Definition
The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 200 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has a much shorter history than the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey. The two series tend to move in tandem much of the time, although not each and every month. They are both considered leading indicators for the ISM manufacturing survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/162/153/154/165/156/157/168/159/1710/1511/1512/17
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


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