2017 Economic Calendar
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United States : Chicago Fed National Activity Index  
Released On 10/23/2017 8:30:00 AM For Sep, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Level-0.31 -0.37 -0.10 -1.70  to 0.09 0.17 
3 Month Moving Average-0.04 -0.16 -0.16 

The national activity index improved noticeably in September, to 0.17 from a revised minus 0.37 in August. The biggest difference comes from production indicators which reserved a minus 0.33 showing in August, one due in part to one-time effects from Hurricane Harvey, to a gain of 0.10. Employment contributed 0.06, up from August's 0.01, as a sharp drop in the unemployment rate to 4.2 percent offset a 33,000 decline in nonfarm payrolls. Sales, orders & inventories were once again a moderate plus and personal consumption & housing a moderate minus. Despite September's overall improvement, the 3-month average, pulled down by the sharp weakness in August, held at minus 0.16 which is the weakest reading for what has been a weak year for this indicator.

Consensus Outlook
Hurricanes scrambled September's economic data pointing to uncertain results for the national activity index. Employment was sharply mixed with payrolls posting a rare decline while at the same time the unemployment rate and wage data showed strength. Retail sales soared on replacement demand for vehicles while the manufacturing component of the industrial production report posted no better than a marginal increase. Forecasters see national activity coming in at minus 0.10 in September vs minus 0.31 in August though the range of estimates is wide, from minus 1.70 to plus 0.09.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index that tracks overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.  Why Investors Care

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/262/233/204/245/226/267/278/219/2510/2311/2112/21
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