2017 Economic Calendar
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United States : Chicago Fed National Activity Index  
Released On 9/25/2017 8:30:00 AM For Aug, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Level-0.01 0.03 0.11 -0.25  to 0.13 -0.31 
3 Month Moving Average-0.05 0.00 -0.04 

Hurricane Harvey made its effects felt in the national activity index which fell to minus 0.31 in August for the weakest showing since August last year. The 3-month average fell to minus 0.04 for only the second negative score this year. Negative readings in this broad composite are consistent with subpar economic growth.

Negative pull came especially from the production component as industrial production, hit by Harvey dislocations, showed declines for all 3 components -- manufacturing, mining and utilities. Also weak was personal consumption & housing with retail sales pulled down by weak auto sales, another likely Harvey effect centered in Houston, and also housing starts where the South showed sharp Harvey-related effects.

Positive contributions came from employment, where August payroll growth was solid at 156,000, and also sales, orders & inventories where a boost came from a sharp inventory build in the ISM manufacturing report. But today's report is about weakness not strength and the prospect of Hurricane Irma's impact on Florida points to similar trouble for the September report.

Consensus Outlook
August is difficult to assess given Hurricane Harvey's late month hit on Houston which hurt industrial production and construction. August payroll data were also soft but were sampled before the Harvey's landfall. Forecasters see the national activity index rising slightly to 0.11 vs minus 0.01 in July.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index that tracks overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.  Why Investors Care

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/262/233/204/245/226/267/278/219/2510/2311/2112/21
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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