2017 Economic Calendar
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Employment Situation  
Released On 12/8/2017 8:30:00 AM For Nov, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change261,000 244,000 190,000 153,000  to 250,000 228,000 
Unemployment Rate - Level4.1 %4.1 %4.0 % to 4.3 %4.1 %
Private Payrolls - M/M change252,000 247,000 184,000 157,000  to 245,000 221,000 
Manufacturing Payrolls - M/M change24,000 23,000 20,000 10,000  to 30,000 31,000 
Participation Rate - level62.7 %62.7 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change0.0 %-0.1 %0.3 %0.1 % to 0.4 %0.2 %
Average Hourly Earnings - Y/Y change2.4 %2.3 %2.6 %2.5 % to 2.8 %2.5 %
Av Workweek - All Employees34.4 hrs34.4 hrs34.4 hrs to 34.5 hrs34.5 hrs

Highlights
Overheating may not be the description of the labor market but heating up definitely is. Nonfarm payrolls rose a stronger-than-expected 228,000 in November led by outsized gains for manufacturing at 31,000, construction at 24,000, and professional services at 46,000.

Pointing to the risk of labor constraints is a rise in the average workweek, up 1 tenth to 34.5 hours for private-sector employees. Another risk is the lack of available workers, reflected most clearly in the unemployment rate which is unchanged at a 17-year low of 4.1 percent.

Yet all this demand has yet to translate into wage inflation which remains subdued. Average hourly earnings, at $26.55, did rise 0.2 percent in the month but the prior month is revised 1 tenth lower and is now at minus 0.1 percent. The year-on-year rate is only 2.5 percent which is historically low for this reading.

The bumps have come and gone and the labor market is where it was before the hurricane season, continuing to grow and continuing to absorb what is a very thin pool of available labor. Still, for the fourth-quarter outlook, today's report points to strong year-end momentum for the economy.

Recent History Of This Indicator
Hurricane effects are expected to be confined to September, when nonfarm payrolls rose only 18,000, and to October when they snapped back to 261,000. November's consensus is an intrend and still strong 190,000. The unemployment rate never showed much effect from the hurricanes, dropping a tenth in October to 4.1 percent where it is expected to hold in November. Moderate strength is expected for average hourly earnings, at a consensus 0.3 percent monthly gain for an improving 2.6 percent year-on-year rate. Other calls are for a 184,000 rise in private payrolls, another strong gain at 20,000 gain for manufacturing payrolls, and no change for the workweek at 34.4 hours.

Definition
The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators based on two separate surveys in this one report. The unemployment rate equals the number of unemployed persons divided by the total number of persons in the labor force, which comes from a survey of 60,000 households (this is called the household survey). Workers are only counted once, no matter how many jobs they have, or whether they are only working part-time. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known figures from the Household Survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate t
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/62/33/104/75/56/27/78/49/110/611/312/8
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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