Final estimates for Singapore's gross domestic product in the three months to December showed an annualised increase of 12.3 percent on the quarter, above the advance estimate of 9.1 percent and close to the consensus forecast for an increase of 12.5 percent. This confirms a significant rebound in growth from the decline of 0.4 percent in the three months to September
Year-on-year growth in Singapore's GDP in the three months to December was revised from an advance estimate of 1.8 percent to 2.9 percent, above the consensus forecast of 2.5 percent. This also confirms that Singapore's economy accelerated on a year-on-year basis from an increase of 1.2 percent in the three months to September.
The upward revision to headline GDP growth was mainly driven by more complete data showing stronger growth in the manufacturing sector. Manufacturing was initially estimated to have grown by 14.6 percent on the quarter and by 6.5 percent on the year in the three months to December, but these estimate has now been revised up to growth of 39.8 percent on the quarter and 11.5 percent on the year. This is a sharp increase from growth seen in the previous quarter. As is often the case with Singapore growth data, these large moves in the numbers mainly reflect big swings in volatile parts of the manufacturing sector, in particular biomedical products and semiconductors.
Today's report also confirms that activity strengthened in the services sector in the three months to December, with an increase of 8.4 percent on the quarter and year-on-year growth picking up to 1.0 percent from 0.4 percent in the three months to September. This reflects solid growth in the trade-related transportation and storage industry. The construction sector, however, remains weak, advancing by just 0.8 percent on the quarter and declining by 2.8 percent on the year after a year-on-year fall of 2.2 percent the previous quarter.
Annual GDP data show Singapore's economy expanded by 2.0 percent in 2016, up slightly from the 1.9 percent growth recorded in 2015. The manufacturing sector recorded annual growth of 3.6 percent after falling by 5.1 percent in 2015, while annual growth in the services sector slowed from 3.2 percent in 2015 to 1.0 percent in 2016. Annual growth in the construction sector also slowed sharply from 3.9 percent to 0.2 percent. Looking forward, officials forecast annual growth of between 1.0 percent and 3.0 percent for 2017, reflecting an assessment that improved global trade flows will provide further support to the manufacturing sector and the transportation and storage industry.
GDP refers to the aggregate value of the goods and services produced in the economic territory of Singapore. GDP estimates are compiled by the output, expenditure and income approaches. Output-based GDP refers to the sum of gross value added generated by economic activities in the domestic economy. Expenditure-based GDP refers to the sum of private consumption expenditure of households including non-profit institutions serving households, government consumption expenditure, gross capital formation and net exports of goods and services. Income-based GDP refers to the sum of incomes receivable by each institutional sector from the domestic production of goods and services which includes compensation of employees, gross operating surplus and taxes (less subsidies, if any) on production and on imports
In order to compare the real value of output/expenditure over time, it is necessary to remove the effect of price changes. This is achieved by selecting the price structure of 2010 as the base according to which the goods and services in other years are re-valued. The resulting aggregates after adjustment for price changes are known as constant-price estimates.
The advance GDP estimates are computed largely from data in the first two months of the quarter (e.g. 1st Quarter is based on Jan and Feb; 2nd Quarter is based on Apr and May). They are intended as early estimates of GDP growth in the quarter, and are subject to revision when more comprehensive data become available.
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